The Memo:
To:
Everyone
Re:
New Charts
Old Times
The Forgotten
The Highlander
Comments:
“This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, all I'm offering is the truth – nothing more.” -Morpheus; The Matrix
End Memo.
The Unemployed
Headlines may as well be written by AI at this point, given the ballyhoo from news regarding today's “unexpectedly” high initial unemployment claims. That is if the folks writing and reporting can’t be bothered to put anything into useful context or understand that which they repeat.
Perhaps I’m being harsh, given that the research I put forth here has been very much a labor of love, and an endeavor to find the truth, regardless of what that truth is.
When we use the non seasonally adjusted data, initial unemployment claims dropped in this most recent report. I’ll reserve commentary on the gubmint acknowledgement that they have had issues collecting and reporting the data.
We are still tracking most closely to two prior cycles.
The first being that which shall not be named:
We are very close to, based on EFF cycles, what becomes the uptrend in unemployment, and commencement of recession.
But as things go, the future is unwritten, and there are still two paths we are tracking.
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow, don't be alarmed now
It's just a spring clean for the May queen
Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run
There's still time to change the road you're on
Led Zeppelin
I’ve shared these compared to the mean, which I believe tracks most closely to current reality, and thereby puts the unimportant recession (I’ll get to why) near, rather than, as the Dot Com cylce shows below. Even though on a numerical basis, we have tracked the 99-03 cycle rather closely in initial claims. Remember, claims peak AFTER recessions.
Ok, the Unimportant Recession:
Does recession stop anyone needing to make money? Run their Business? Does declairing recession official make anyone who has already suffered the burden of inflation, the loss of income, make anything better?
No. And, NBER (national bureau of economic research) doesn’t track “business cycles” with the intent to make money. And therefore, being in recession, doesn’t in and of itself mean anything.
Thus is the duality of Man. Define the thing. But also, wherein lies the bottom of cylical value? They are not the same. Nor does it come remotely close to signifying when things will improve for those seeking gainful W2 employment.
More on that soon.
American Man
Some folks are born made to wave the flag
Hoo, they're red, white and blue
And when the band plays "Hail to the chief"
Ooh, they point the cannon at you, Lord
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no senator's son, son
It ain't me, it ain't me
I ain't no furtunate one, no
I’ve read much lately on how American Men are not in the workforce, about how they’re living in their parents basement, how they’re “stay at home sons”, that all they do is play video games. Or even the older men “just retire early”.
And I’ll admit, I’m even guilty of labeling some of the younger ones “Addidas flip flop bros”. But I’m also interested in reality. And All that glitters isn’t gold no matter how much it may seem at first glance even if it’s an easy soundbite/name to toss out.
When I was a young man, on the youngest end of the charts I’m about to share, I learned carpentry and landscaping from a pair of Vietnam Vets. Much like I’m sure their apprenticeship went, I was subjected to the complaints of “you youthes are all the same, lazy and entiteled” or something along the lines of “these kids these days”.
Despite all that, I worked my fingers to the bone, I soaked up every insult, every ounce of knowledge I could, all while being told horror stories of multiple tours in Vietnam as I trudge through the days before pnuematic nailers were in everyone’s hands.
And I didn’t complain. I didn’t wince, I just worked. Eventually, the drama about youth faded, and I became a favored apprentice. Even to the point the other crew members would wind up hating me for the praise I received while the derision was poured on them for not being “able to work like Allissey”. (There’s many people that can’t, even when confronted with my name, pronounce it, despite being named after IMHO the Greatest General and President the United States has ever had). To that end, you may all call me Mr. Awsumb.
My point being, there’s always more than meets the eye. And the story of “the youths are lazy” is as old a trope as time itself.
And it begets laziness and lack of consideration. I’m sure there’s some truth in all the commentary including “stay at home sons”.
But I’m also positive that there’s an enormous correlation to “Forevere Wars TM” being a huge cause of missing men in the workforce.
The death toll of Vietnam may have been far from reached, but what data we do have from our Dot Gov, shows a startling picture when we include the timeline of the wars we have fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.
John Stewart has been the most vocal proponent I know of to champion combat vets, especially due to burn pit disabilities.
And when I say disability, I mean: disabled. Lacking the ability to breathe normally, see normally, hear normally and worse.
Now, the labor force participation rate has declined for a some time, but there’s a known accelerant.
So, without more, please take the time to expand the below chart, and look at the rate of change of “not in Labor force with a Disability: 16-64 Years old Male” and “In civilian labor force With a disability: 16-64 Years old Male” from 2008-2020. Post 2020 should speak for itself. If not, kindly remove yourself from the rock you’re under and google what happened.
And remember: Civilian = not in active duty.
And if that isn’t damning enough: Just look at the overall Not in Labor Force with a Disability in the same time frame.
Men went to work more post covid than they did from 2008-2018 with a disability.
Maybe, stoicism isn’t dead after all. And maybe War has consequences beyond who declares themselves winners and losers.
I haven’t forgotten.
Equitably Programmed Redistribution
Again, there are two path’s you can go by.
One being the most recent. And don’t forget, part of the entire concept of my EFFing research is the effects on the population, in a non ecnomic fashion, to which 2020’s “C” word crash was very much part of the cycle as described herein.
Here is the most “recent cycle”. Also the most “programmed” of the trading cycle.
And the “cycle which shall not be named” cylce. Either way, by the 1st/2nd week of September, there’ll be another drawdown. Even if we test the ATH on the Nasdaq.
SPX is just a week and a half behind. As it’s always been.
Shelter In Place
I’m dissappointed that phrase even exists in the American Lexicon. Not that it matters to anyone else.
Using the same EFFing timeline, the current negative pricing environment for Homebuilders is far underperforming and worse than “that which shall not be named” timeline.
“Life happens at the Margins” is all well and good, but “more of much much less” says it really doesn’t care what Margin called about.
Pre Existing Conditions
How’s everyone’s insurance plan going lately?
There are two men in the ring. One is many men in and of himself, screaming for lower “rates” in both a general and specific manner, that won’t in fact help the situation. The other is everyone who buys the issuance of debt that the one man is in charge of. And they are many men, but they are altogether also one man.
All of them are just fighting about how much of your money they get to spend for their own purposes.
All the while all the men demand that these prices come down. While also demanding that these prices do not come down if the home is theirs. Such is the Duality of Man.
There are estates. And there is real estate. Kindly remember not to confuse them.
The Singularity
As the duality of man continues to besiege itself with the argument of Bull or Bear, it’s probably best to remember that to be either is to ignore that more than one thing can exist at the same time.
But if there can be only one?
Just as The Highlander film’s Sean Connery as “Juan Sanchez Villalobos Ramirez” explained to Christopher Lambert’s “Conner McLeod”:
There can be only one, Highlander.
Please ignore the sequels unless you’re talking about blocking out the sun and reserecting ancient villians…..
Speaking of which:
Who is the crowd that peers through the cage
As we perform here upon the stage?
Tell me a lie in a beautiful way
I believe in answers just not today
Avenged Sevenfold: The Stage
Today in time it is:
5’ O’clock somwhere, as is customary in America. And that’s where I’ll share that the price of electricity ain’t going anywhere but up.
None of this is financial or investment advice. But it is for enteratinment, research and educational purposes.