US Homebuilding Situation
For February 2025
Date: March 25th 2025
Time: 7:30pm
The Homebuilding Situation stands at 14.12. This is 85.88 points below the Average Situation for Homebuilders.
Sales
February Sales improved moderately to 59,00 units. 4,000 sales more than the monthly average over 53 years.
Inventory
Current new single family homes for sale remained at 494,000 units. The past 5 months have been revised to remain under 500,000 units on a non seasonally adjusted basis. In February, the seasonally adjusted rate broke 500,000 units. The most since November 2007.
Price Direction
Price increased on a year over year change level by less than 1%. The Median Sale Price for a New Home was $414,500. The past 4 months received revisions.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rate decreased by 1.6% month over month. February’s average 30yr Fixed Mortgage Rate was 6.8%
Additional Commentary:
Public builders posting 1st quarter results have reported compressed margins, compressed sales numbers and have lowered guidance. The 20 largest publicly traded builders have seen more than $79 Billion dollars of share value wiped out in the last six months. The average per share value loss is 34%. The 10 year treasury is up in March on a month over month basis.
Additional charts this month show:
the record months of spec homes as well as record months of backlog for sale.
500,000 New Homes For Sale
The Record holding months of Spec home inventory
The per share and dollar value loss in stock share value of the 20 largest public builders.
In February 2007, the Index level was 1.49, which improved to 14 before plunging to -7. Sales in February 2007 were 68,000 units vs 59,000 in 2025.
Builders will need to see prices cut or extreme rate buydowns meet the $330,000 price target to materially improve the situation and clear inventory.
Small builders, may begin to have room to capitalize if they can hit these targets and begin to grow, while larger builders begin to strain cash from operations and holding costs.
The Method and Research for the index is available Here:
https://www.uspropertyservices.com/homebuilding-situation-index
