US Homebuilding Situation

Off Record Low: December showed a slight reprieve

Date: January 27th 2025

Time: 7:30pm

The Homebuilding Situation stands at 7.98. Up from a record low, that was even lower off data revisions. November Level -15.5 vs pre revision -14.68

Sales

December Sales improved from 45,000 to 52,000

Inventory

Current single family homes for sale climbed to 496,000 units. The exact number for sale in December 2007.

Price Direction

Price increased on a year over year change level by 2.1%

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rate increase by 1.3% month over month wiped out half of the sales gain basis.

Homebuilding Situation

We have reached December 2007 levels of New Units for sale and climbing. The Record was set in August of 2006. Given public builder executive comments looking for spring sales, and the pace at which inventory is growing, matching the record high is possible. We are at 87% of the record currently.

Additional Commentary:

Builders will need additional incentives and price cuts to move inventory fast enough to start clearing the buildup. Compressed margins are likely.

For all the new readers, the Method and Research is available Here:

https://www.uspropertyservices.com/homebuilding-situation-index