Friday EFFing Memo
Happy EFFing Tax Time
The Memo
To:
Everyone
Re:
Savings (401k components
Jobs (initial claims and construction employment)
Shelter. A variety of it.
Today in EFFing Time
Comments:
Sometimes there isn’t much to say. Other than modern day baseball has mostly been ruined by people who can’t hit a baseball, who throw their bats, and look even more lost in the field when a ball comes their way. That and a group of youngsters who think radar guns were invented in 2008, and don’t know there exists a difference between measuring an object’s velocity at it’s point of exit versus it’s velocity 60 feet away, without said velocity being constant. Because it’s thrown by an arm not perpetually propelled by an engine. So a game of physics and mechanics played by a group of people who understand neither. Kinda like modern day economists not understanding economics. But I digress.
I hope your tax bill was nonexistent, you all work too hard to not keep more of your money. By the way, tax day was the last day for employers to contribute funds to their prior year 401k contributions, as well as for self employed contribution funded adoptions. Not coincidentally, the stock market set a new all time high. Which changes nothing about my prior statements or projections. As the charts below show. Even though this isn’t financial or investment advice. It may be baseball advice though.
On to the picture show.
End Memo. For the new people: What(s) the EFF is at the bottom
Savings
Nasdaq looking less like 08 and more like 2020 again. Can we make up our mind which mess we want to deal with? Please?
Now vs 08
Now vs 2020
Vs both cycles end. Zoomed in.
Nippon Professional Baseball League is still amazing. Saduharu Oh!
SOX index vs 2020
Jobs
Initial claims. By the way, roughly half the state’s unemployment benefits have been cut to nearly nothing. Also, self employed (including 1099 like delivery/app based workers) don’t qualify for unemployment benefits most places.
Seasonally adjusted.
Construction employment.
Shelter
NAHB
Lennar’s Stock
Multifamily Real Estate Prices (percent change from year ago EFF Indexed)
Still Interesting. But not really to me.
Today in EFFing time it is:
You: “Mr. Awsumb, why haven’t you changed your mind about your prior statements regarding the economy and baseball?”
Me: “Because:
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
4th Rate Turning Explanation Revisited
I’ve wrote at length about how we’ve experienced 15 Effective Federal Funds Cycles since 1944. Each cycle has a:
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
They can be summed up as: Initial Reaction to EFFR (effective federal funds rate) changes, Growth despite of EFFR Changes, Stagnation/Inability to further grow as EFFR tops, and outright contraction even as EFFR chases said contraction.
The Mean cycle time going back to 1944 is 238 Weeks. Or 4 1/2 Years. The Median cycle time is 225 weeks, or 4 3/10ths Years. So 4 Cycles is roughly 20 years.
(4 1/2Years x 4 =18)
Coincidentally, Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning seasons average 20 years each, or roughly 80 years start to finish. Each of those seasons represents:
So an EFF cycle is the time from rates commencing their rise, to the time they bottom, before the cycle begins again. OR, that’s what(s) the EFF.
Those cycles consist of days/weeks and months. So we can pinpoint today in time to the day/week/month of the previous cycles, and compare the economic reactions, behaviors and outcomes to the current cycle. I call those days: Today in Effing Time.
We currently just completed the 214th week of the cycle.
The original 4th Rate Turning Premise can be found here:
Thank you for your attention to this matter